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Some states and congressional districts are a lot harder to poll than others, and this can have major consequences. Take Wisconsin . The polls there were misleading in 2016. Hillary Clinton, apparently feeling she had a secure lead, didn’t even campaign in the state. The Wisconsin polls probably underestimated the number of white voters without a college degree, or missed the undecided voters breaking for Donald J. Trump. Those were problems in many states, but might have been particularly bad in Wisconsin, which has a big share of white working-class voters. But as we’ve been reminded while conducting New York Times Upshot/Siena College polling in recent weeks, the state also has one of the nation’s least helpful voter registration files. These are the foundation of modern campaign polling: a data set of every registered voter. In general, pollsters use data from voter files to ensure that their samples are representative — by having the right number of younger voters or older voters, for example, or Democrats or Republicans.

For the original version including any supplementary images or video, visit https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/20/upshot/polling-2018-midterms-elections-challenge.html

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